The primary focus of Al-Shabaab has been targeting the transitional government
of Somalia and its allies. However, the group's leaders have aligned with Al-Qaida
and ordered attacks against African Union peacekeepers, aid workers and, most
recently, civilians in Uganda. Al-Shabaab fighters, above, are on a Oct. 30, 2009,
security patrol to protect a pro-Palestinian demonstration north of Mogadishu.

With three coordinated suicide attacks in the Ugandan capital of Kampala earlier this month, Somalia's Al-Shabaab formally made the transition from a domestic to an international terror group.

The triple bombings killed 76 people who were watching a broadcast of the final World Cup soccer game. The attacks were said to be revenge for Uganda's participation in the African Union's peacekeeping mission in Somalia, known as AMISOM.

The group's profile is now even higher than it was when the State Dept. designated it a foreign terrorist organization in 2008, taking note of its affiliations with Al-Qaida and its attempts to subvert the government of Somalia and to "destabilize the Horn of Africa region." It hardly hides its ideology, having distributed a video of its fighters chanting allegiance to Osama bin Laden, and calling for a "global jihad" launched from Somalia that would "deprive the disbelievers of sleep and destroy their interests around the world."

Has Al-Shabaab miscalculated? The latest blasts appear to have generated some unexpected blowback. The public resolve of the A.U. mission seems not to have been shaken, but strengthened. The government in Kampala pledged to send more Uganda troops to Mogadishu, and several other nations have expressed a willingness to take part in the mission.

To date, Uganda and Burundi have been the only two nations that have followed through with peacekeepers. Indeed, there has not been much peace to keep. There hasn't been a functioning central government in the country since the dictatorship of Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991.

After the latest attacks, Guinea pledged to send a battalion of soldiers. Djibouti has expressed a willingness to deploy peacekeepers. Nigeria, Zambia, Senegal and Ghana are also said to be examining the possibility -- though such pledges are easier to make than to keep.

Nevertheless, there is a growing realization that Al-Shabaab represents a threat that reaches beyond Somalia's borders.

Massacre in Kampala

Soccer has been declared un-Islamic by Al-Shabaab and is banned in areas of Somalia under its control. On July 11, it took that edict a horrendous step further, as three suicide bombers blew themselves up at an Ethiopian restaurant and the Kyaddondo rugby grounds in Kampala. As noted above, 76 people were killed and scores more injured as they watched the World Cup on television.

The next day, police discovered a fourth explosive device in a trash can at a nightclub. As was the case with the other vests and belts, the unexploded bomb was packed with ball bearings. A detonator and laptop bag were also found.

Al-Shabaab quickly claimed responsibility, saying that Uganda's participation in AMISOM had made that country its target. More attacks will come, vowed the group. Burundi and its capital of Bujumbura were also singled out for potential attacks.

In short order, Ugandan authorities made a series of arrests in and around Kampala. Some 20 ethnic Somalis were said to be among those detained, as were seven Pakistanis. Investigators said that the Somali group had recruited a local man to help coordinate the attacks.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation sent 63 personnel to Uganda to help with the probe. Al-Shabaab had received funds from Al-Qaida, those close to the investigation told the Wall Street Journal.

Evolution of Al-Shabaab

Al-Shabaab (the Youth) was founded in 2006 by Aden Hashi Ayro, essentially to provide muscle for the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) that sought to grab power from the Western-backed warlords in Mogadishu. With Al-Shabaab acting as its militant wing, the Islamic Courts took over much of southern Somalia in the latter half of 2006.

The Somali government and its allied Ethiopian forces turned the tide during a two-week war ending in January 2007. Eventually, Al-Shabaab splintered from the ICU, and still seeks the overthrow of what has been termed the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia.

In the meantime, the group has been designated a foreign terrorist organization by Australia, Canada, the U.K. and the U.S.; it was also sanctioned this year by the U.N. Security Council.

Whatever local support Al-Shabaab might have enjoyed has largely gone by the boards, according to those familiar with the areas where the group is strongest. The group has instituted a series of bans that have gotten increasingly bizarre -- to include prohibitions against soccer, music, mustaches and gold fillings, all based on the group's peculiar interpretations of Islamic law. One ignores the bans at considerable peril, with offenders suffering public floggings and amputations.

Ayro was killed in a U.S. airstrike in 2008 and leadership assumed by Mukhtar Roobow Ali. Al-Shabaab has more recently gained control of large swaths of south and central Somalia. Much of its initial support stemmed from the group's opposition to the American-supported Ethiopian forces. Al-Shabaab got a boost when Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia in late 2006 at the request of the weak federal government.

The Eritrean government, Ethiopia's rival, has been widely accused of backing Al-Shabaab, not only by the Somali government, but also by the A.U., U.N. and the United States.

Al-Shabaab has since made a very public alliance with Al-Qaida, providing bin Laden's network with a strong a foothold in East Africa. U.S. special operators killed a top Al-Qaida leader named Saleh ali Saleh Nabhan in southern Somalia in September 2009 while he was traveling with leaders of Al-Shabaab, reflecting how the terrorist groups had grown closer.

The group has been known to be involved in recruiting from the Somali diaspora in the West, including the United States. The FBI, for instance, has investigated a number of Minneapolis men who have left the country and turned up in Somalia.

As many as six Somali-Americans are believed to have died after taking up arms with Al-Shabaab, reported the Christian Science Monitor in late December. A man named Shirwa Ahmed, "who traveled from Minneapolis to help execute an attack on Oct. 29, 2008, that killed 20 people, is believed to be the first American suicide bomber."

When the Ethiopian forces withdrew from Somalia in early 2009, Al-Shabaab and many Somalis lost a common enemy. Of late, Al-Shabaab has experienced internal pressures and divides, and found itself combating Islamist groups such as Hizbul Islam even while fighting the government.

Taking over the role of unwanted foreigners, at least in the eyes of some Somalis, has been AMISOM -- the African Union's peacekeeping force in Somalia.

African Union Tries to Measure Its Response

The 6,000-man African Union Mission in Somalia is primarily staffed by troops from Burundi and Uganda. Its stated mission is to protect and support the transitional federal government.

While the U.N. and A.U. back the transitional government, it barely maintains a toehold in the Somali capital. Al-Shabaab, on the other hand, controls large portions of the southern half of the country.

Recent accounts have blamed AMISOM peacekeepers for indiscriminate shelling of militant positions in Mogadishu, which has led to a significant number of civilian casualties. No doubt such shelling has been a boon to Al-Shabaab's recruitment efforts.

Yet, the peacekeepers have also been hampered by restrictive rules of engagement -- which have only allowed them to defend key government infrastructure and assist with the delivery of humanitarian aid. After being forced to sit on the defensive, the peacekeepers have overreacted on occasion, which has caught the attention of the media and played into the hands of Al-Shabaab.

This matter was addressed at an A.U. summit in Kampala in late July. Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni called for a stronger mandate to "eliminate" Al-Shabaab by authorizing AMISOM to take the offensive. The summit did not go that far.

The heads of state of the A.U. nations did not change the mandate, but did decide to alter the rules, saying the peacekeepers can carry out pre-emptive attacks and fire first if they are about to be attacked.

Al-Shabaab's recent actions may have given other African nations a new sense of urgency. Uganda has vowed to send another 2,000 troops to serve with AMISOM. As noted, Guinea and Djibouti also have pledged to deploy forces. The addition of new Ugandan personnel alone would put the mission at over 8,000 troops. Reaching a total of 10,000 peacekeepers is not an unrealistic expectation, said A.U. chairman Jean Ping.

Nigeria, Zambia, Senegal and Ghana have also expressed interest in sending troops and are said to be studying the situation on the ground, according to the chief of Uganda's land forces, Lt. Gen. Katumba Wamala. The United States has also pledged to provide increased training, equipment, transportation and logistical support to AMISOM.

* * *

It is possible that the terrorist attacks on Kampala have backfired on the terrorists. At least for the moment, the A.U. and U.S. have increased their levels of support to Somalia's government.

However, increasing the foreign presence could also boomerang among Somalis, especially if more civilians get caught the in crossfire or are hit by AMISOM's shelling.

Al-Shabaab has twice been energized by what has been seen as foreign enemy -- first by Ethiopian forces and then by the introduction of AMISOM. The jihadist group could well become stronger and more united in the face of a reinforced peacekeeping mission of outsiders.